Is nowhere safe? Countering the threat to naval vessels at their home ports

Naval base protection may not often make the headlines, but as Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s Black Sea facilities demonstrate, it is indispensable. From forcing an opponent to rethink their fleet distribution strategy to holding the potential of being a conflict-changer, how navies protect their bases is a critical matter that deserves far more attention than it currently gets.

Over the course of two years, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the former’s Sevastopol naval base has been targeted several times by its opponent.

Whether these attacks succeeded in inflicting serious damage to Moscow’s naval assets is almost beside the point. What matters most, in fact, is that Ukraine has successfully managed to make the Russian Navy feel unsafe in its own base.

Images and reports circulating on social media show that over the past year Russia has been adding multiple layers of defence to protect Sevastopol. From intensifying patrols – with boats, helicopters and even trained dolphins – to floating booms and nets, the Russian fleet has been trying hard to feel safe at home again.

Yet at the end of 2023 multiple news sources reported that Russia was contemplating building new Black Sea ports in the breakaway Abkhazia region of Georgia. It was also reported that Moscow was thinking of moving some key naval capabilities in potentially safer ports, Novorossiysk and Feodosia.

In other words, with its uncrewed systems attacks, Ukraine has forced the Russian Navy into a very uncomfortable position, one that requires it to rethink critical elements of its Black Sea strategy. That is how important naval base protection is.

But this issue is complex. Apologies to anyone from the land or air forces reading this, but navies, frankly, have the toughest job when it comes to protecting their own assets. Threats can come from land, air, on the water or below the surface – it requires a full 360° three-dimensional approach...

Thales UK’s recent £1.8 billion contract with the UK MoD to improve Royal Navy ship availability and resilience was unveiled just under a month after the collision between HMS Chiddingfold and HMS Bangor. The timing of this announcement covering predictive maintenance for the fleet is interesting, to say the least.

On 2 February, Thales UK announced it had been awarded a £1.8 billion Maritime Sensor Enhancement Team (MSET) contract by the UK MoD. MSET, according to the press release, ‘will sharpen the focus on equipment availability, predicting problems – through AI innovations and data management – rather than reacting when they emerge’.

The new contract, the release notes, is meant to address the RN’s need to increase its fleet’s availability in an era of increasing global instability.

In December 2023, the French DGA procurement agency awarded Naval Group a framework contract for the design, production and testing of an unmanned combat underwater vehicle (UCUV). Very little is known about how the French Navy will deploy this system, but the fact that it is based on Naval Group’s XL UUV demonstrator provides some hints.

The UCUV framework agreement followed another contract awarded to Naval Group by the DGA in May 2023. This focused on a study, carried out over nine months, to understand the main use cases and system architecture of a UCUV.

Above: The UCUV to be developed by Naval Group will draw heavily on the company’s XL UUV demonstrator. (Photo: Naval Group)

The latest contract will build on that study and start exploring the different technological bricks that could fit the French Navy’s operational requirements for such a system. The first phase kicked off with a follow-on contract signed in December 2024 covering 24 months of work.

This will focus on enhancing the UCUVs decision-making autonomy by developing a ‘brain’ allowing the system to navigate safely, known as Autonomous Decision-Making Process (ADMP)...

Snapshot

In an appearance at the Italian parliament’s Foreign and Defence Affairs Committee, Italian Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Adm Giuseppe Cavo Dragone claimed that Rome would invest in new naval ASW platforms. Italy could procure two new FREMM frigates. Such platforms could be procured for roughly $1.4 billion, and deliveries are expected in the late 2020s.

In March 2023, Cavo Dragone confirmed that two additional FREMMs will be budgeted in the next multi-year planning document (2023-2025 DPP). As anticipated, the DPP 2023-2025 includes provisions for two additional FREMMs dubbed as FREMM EVO.

Programme Background

Requirements

As of October 2022, the Italian Navy operated a fleet of eight FREMM frigates, split equally between anti-submarine warfare (ASW) and general purpose (GP) configurations.

Italy ordered ten frigates, but the ninth and tenth FREMM vessels, Bianchi and Schergat, were sold to Egypt in 2020 as part of a $1.3 billion deal.

Chiavari-based defence publication Rivista Italiana Difesa revealed that the last two FREMMs for the Italian Navy – already under construction at Fincantieri's shipyards — will probably feature a hybrid configuration. The frigates will be equipped with the armament of the GP version and the full ASW suite (127mm naval gun and VDS sonar).

Rumours suggest that the Italian Navy wants to bring the frigates' combat line to 16 units. The rumours found foundations in the renewed Italian Navy's focus on the ASW and the words of CDS in July 2022. Moreover, on a strategic and operational level, Rome has recently widened its focus in the Mediterranean by enlarging the area where its Navy is called to a persistent engagement. 

It is worth noting that the Italian Navy will also receive four PPAs in the FULL configuration (same displacement as a FREMM), which are fully-fledged first-line fighting vessels. Thus, should the navy build a further two FREMMs, the frigates' combat line would count 16 vessels: four FREMMs GP, four FREMMs ASW, four FREMMs hybrid, and four PPA FULL (light frigates but not optimised for ASW).

The CDS did not reveal which platforms are under evaluation. Although strengthening the ASW capabilities may involve investing in new submarines, MPAs and seabed sensors, frigates with a strong ASW connotation are likely under consideration too. Therefore, it is fair to assume that discussions regarding building new frigates are taking place.

Talking about FREMMs, the options could be either building ships in the same hybrid configuration as the ninth and tenth vessels or developing an evolved version using the existing design as a baseline. Regarding the latter possibility, it could involve integrating the plethora of radar and subsystems developed through the latest Naval Law and currently being fitted onboard the PPAs and the LHD Trieste. In addition, Fincantieri and the Italian Navy may draw from the technical changes implemented in the Constellation-class.

A further option includes selling two older FREMMs GP to Egypt and building four new frigates in the latest hybrid configuration. This means that in 2030, the Italian Navy would have a fleet of 12 FREMM frigates (four ASW, two GP and six hybrids) and four PPA FULL, bringing the total number of the frigates' combat line to 16. This is a highly speculative option and has not found any official confirmation.

Timeline

In an appearance at the Italian parliament’s Foreign and Defence Affairs Committee on 14 July 2022, Cavo Dragone claimed that Rome would invest in new air and naval ASW platforms because of an increased Russian submarine presence in the Mediterranean.

The war in Ukraine has significantly affected the geostrategic context of the Mediterranean basin. The implementation of the Montreux Convention – halting the routine turnover of Russian vessels in the Black Sea — has led to an increased Russian presence in the Eastern and Central Mediterranean.

Speaking to Italian MPs, Cavo Dragone declared: 'our ASW capabilities — which include submarines, ships and air platforms — will be strengthened'.

The CDS said that particular attention would be paid to naval and air assets, given that the current geopolitical instability is set to endure.

In an appearance at the Italian Senate's Foreign and Defence Affairs Committee on 23 March 2023, Cavo Dragone confirmed that two additional FREMMs will be budgeted in the next multi-year planning document (2023-2025 DPP).

As anticipated, the DPP 2023-2025 includes provisions for two additional FREMMs dubbed as FREMM EVO. The document states that the frigates will integrate new technologies. Shephard believes these will include Leonardo Kronos Dual Band Radar.

In February 2023, the Italian Parliament received the budgetary document which outlines the acquisition plan of the two FREMM EVOs. The document highlights that the new frigates will be fitted with new technologies aimed at improving the performance and the issues experienced onboard the already in-service FREMMs.

Contract Award

Shephard estimates a contract will be awarded in 2025/2026.

Quantity

Given the potential requirement of having a fleet of 16 frigates, two new vessels could be built on top of the ten already in-service/under construction. This quantity requirement has been elaborated by considering the PPA FULL in the calculation of the frigates' inventory numbers.

In March 2023, Cavo Dragone confirmed that the 11th and 12th FREMM will be budgeted.

Programme Value

According to the February 2023 document submitted to the Italian Parliament, the programme has a total value of around €2 billion ($2.1 billion). The first phase of the programme, which has a budget of €60 million ($64.66 million) and is set to run from 2023 to 2025, will focus on feasibility and risk-reduction studies for the integration of new technologies onboard the frigates. The second phase has a budgetary requirement of €1.94 billion ($2 billion).

Programme Years

The programme years have been calculated by prorating $64.66 million for the feasibility studies from 2023 to 2025 and by spreading the remaining budget ($2 billion) across the estimated construction period of the vessels (2025 to 2029).

Construction & Delivery Timeline

Considering that at its shipyard in Muggiano and Riva Trigoso, Fincantieri is building the U212 NFS, two FREMMs, the PPAs, fitting-out LHD Trieste, and will start working on the DDX and the LXD, it is unlikely that there will be space for new vessels before 2024.

FREMMs have an estimated three-year construction period, from the beginning of work to the launch. Should a contract be placed by 2024, with construction starting in 2025, the first vessel could enter service in 2029. Deliveries are expected to take place between 2029 and the early 2030s.